Nos votos totais, Jair Bolsonaro, do PSL, tem 48%, e Haddad, 38%. Pesquisa ouviu 9.173 eleitores na quarta-feira (24) e na quinta-feira (25).
O Datafolha divulgou nesta quinta-feira (25) o resultado da mais recente pesquisa do instituto sobre o 2º turno da eleição presidencial. O levantamento foi realizado nesta quarta-feira (24) e quinta-feira (25) e tem margem de erro de 2 pontos, para mais ou para menos.
Nos votos válidos, os resultados foram os seguintes:
- Jair Bolsonaro (PSL): 56%
- Fernando Haddad (PT): 44%
No levantamento anterior, Bolsonaro tinha 59% e Haddad, 41%.
Para calcular os votos válidos, são excluídos da amostra os votos brancos, os nulos e os eleitores que se declaram indecisos. O procedimento é o mesmo utilizado pela Justiça Eleitoral para divulgar o resultado oficial da eleição. Para vencer no primeiro turno, um candidato precisa de 50% dos votos válidos mais um voto.
Votos totais
Nos votos totais, os resultados foram os seguintes:
- Jair Bolsonaro (PSL): 48%
- Fernando Haddad (PT): 38%
- Em branco/nulo/nenhum: 8%
- Não sabe: 6%
-
Rejeição
O Datafolha também levantou a rejeição dos candidatos. O instituto perguntou: “E entre estes candidatos a presidente, gostaria que você me dissesse se votaria com certeza, talvez votasse ou não votaria de jeito nenhum em”:
Os resultados foram:
Jair Bolsonaro
- Votaria com certeza – 46%
- Talvez votasse – 9%
- Não votaria de jeito nenhum – 44%
- Não sabe – 2%
Fernando Haddad
- Votaria com certeza – 37%
- Talvez votasse – 9%
- Não votaria de jeito nenhum – 52%
- Não sabe – 2%
-
Número dos candidatos
O Datafolha também perguntou “Qual número você vai digitar na urna eletrônica para confirmar/ anular seu voto para presidente?”. As respostas foram:
Jair Bolsonaro
- Menções corretas – 94%
- Não sabe o número do candidato – 5%
- Menções incorretas – 1%
Fernando Haddad
- Menções corretas – 93%
- Não sabe o número do candidato – 6%
- Menções incorretas – 1%
Decisão do voto
A pesquisa também apontou qual o grau de decisão em relação ao voto:
Jair Bolsonaro
- Está totalmente decidido a votar em… – 94%
- Seu voto ainda pode mudar – 6%
Fernando Haddad
- Está totalmente decidido a votar em… – 91%
- Seu voto ainda pode mudar – 9%
Sobre a pesquisa
- Margem de erro: 2 pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos
- Entrevistados: 9.173 eleitores em 341 municípios
- Quando a pesquisa foi feita: 24 e 25 de outubro
- Registro no TSE: BR-05743/2018
- Nível de confiança: 95%
- Contratantes da pesquisa: TV Globo e “Folha de S.Paulo”
- O nível de confiança da pesquisa é de 95%. Isso quer dizer que há uma probabilidade de 95% de os resultados retratarem a realidade, considerando a margem de erro, que é de 2 pontos, para mais ou para menos.
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